Policy Briefs

Elections Generales 2020-2021 au Niger: Des processus électoraux menacés par une rupture de dialogue politique

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Un contexte national préélectoral sensible
et sous menaces sécuritaires

L’Afrique de l’Ouest, en ce 2e semestre de l’année 2020, vit
une ébullition sociopolitique due au contexte d’élections
couplées pour les uns et présidentielle pour les autres. Six
(6) pays¹ sont concernés par cette situation et des tensions
sont déjà sur le terrain à des degrés divers. Le Niger, bien
que secoué par des désaccords au sein de sa classe
politique, est cité pour les déclarations de son président
sortant Mamadou Issoufou², qui a décidé de respecter la
Constitution qui limite le mandat présidentiel à deux (2).
Cet engagement ouvre la possibilité à une première
véritable alternance politique, depuis l’avènement du
système démocratique en 1992. La Commission Nationale
Électorale Indépendante (CENI), bien que confrontée à de
multiples défis, avance résolument dans ses tâches qui
semblent bien se dérouler pour les élections de 2020-2021.
Toutefois, il faudrait déplorer la rupture du dialogue
politique, survenue suite à des divergences exploitées par
l’opposition pour boycotter les instances politiques mises
en place.Bien que le pouvoir actuel clame toujours sa ferme volonté
d’organiser des élections libres et transparentes, les
différents acteurs politiques n’arrivent toujours pas à
trouver un consensus autour de certains points de
divergences. Un consensus pourtant souhaité par tous,
mais qui tarde à être trouvé avec des incertitudes
marquant cette période aux multiples enjeux.
Pourtant, sur le plan sécuritaire, même si la situation a
connu des périodes d’accalmie, elle demeure volatile,
principalement au niveau de certaines localités du pays,
surtout celles frontalières avec le Nigeria, le Mali, la Libye
et le Burkina Faso, qui sont victimes des exactions de
groupes armés, notamment, des groupes terroristes
proches d’Al-Qaïda au Maghreb islamique (AQMI),
d’Ansar Dine et d’autres mouvements armés au Nord Mali.
Ces mouvements attaquent les localités des régions de
Tillabéry et Tahoua. Boko Haram basé au Nigeria attaque
les localités de la région de Diffa et les différents groupes
armés qui contrôlent le Sud de la Libye depuis la chute du
régime de Kadhafi en 2011.
Au vu de ce contexte très précaire dans une sous-région
déjà sur la brèche en matière sécuritaire, il va de soi que la
communauté internationale s’implique davantage pour
accompagner le Niger pour un scrutin apaisé.

NIGER ÉLECTION GENERALES 2020-2021
La présente publication est un document d’analyse sur la situation sociopolitique du Niger relativement
à son processus électoral en cours, pour les élections locales, législatives et présidentielle de 2020-2021.
Elle nous renseignera succinctement sur les parties prenantes de la scène politique et électorale
nigérienne (I) ; les points de divergences et les initiatives de reprise du dialogue politique (II) ; des
menaces qui subsistent sur le processus électoral (III) ; des simulations d’évolutions possibles de la
situation avec des facteurs résilients ou accélérateurs qui seront élaborés (V) et enfin, des contributions
pour des élections apaisées à l’issue du scrutin (IV).
Aperçu démographique et socio-économique du Niger
Pays du Sahel avec une superficie de près de 1 267 000 km2, le Niger est limité au Nord par la
Libye et l’Algérie, au sud par le Nigéria et le Bénin, à l’est par le Tchad et à l’ouest par le Burkina
Faso et le Mali. Le Niger est un pays laïc et la séparation de l’État et de la religion est garantie
par les articles 3 et 175 de la Constitution de 2010, qui stipulent que « les amendements ou
révisions futurs ne peuvent pas modifier la nature laïque de la République du Niger ». La
population nigérienne dont la majorité vit dans les zones rurales est très diversifiée et est
composée de 10 groupes ethniques à savoir : les Haoussa, les Touaregs, les Zarmas, les
Sonraïs, les Peulhs, les Arabes, les Gourmantchés, les Kanouris et les Budumas. Le Niger est
l’un des pays à forte croissance démographique, sinon le plus ayant un taux de fécondité
élevé 3.8³, avec une population essentiellement jeune 70%, dont l’implication doit être une
nécessité absolue pour les pouvoirs publics. Au-delà des défis relatifs à la croissance
démographique, le pays fait face aussi, à la migration irrégulière, principalement des femmes
et des jeunes avec tous les risques sécuritaires que cela peut engendrer sur la sécurité
humaine.
Au plan économique, jusqu’au début de 2011, le Niger exportait exclusivement des produits
agricoles et de l’élevage mais, avec les exportations de pétrole depuis 2012, le pays a
diversifié ses exportations et a amélioré sa balance commerciale. En 2019, les perspectives
économiques sont favorables, avec une croissance du PIB réel prévue à 5,3 % et à 5,7 % en
2020. Il faut aussi noter les bonnes performances du secteur agricole grâce à l’expansion des
terres irriguées et au développement de mini-barrages. Aussi, le Plan de développement
économique et social (PDES 2017-2020) prévoit de nombreux projets d’infrastructure,
notamment la boucle ferroviaire Cotonou – Niamey – Ouagadougou – Abidjan, un pipeline
pour l’exportation de pétrole brut, le projet énergétique de Salkadamna et le barrage mixte
hydroélectrique de Kandadji.
Malgré un sous-sol riche en ressources minières et énergétiques dont entre autres l’uranium ;
l’or ; le pétrole ; le gaz ; le charbon ; et bien d’autres métaux précieux, le rapport du PNUD 2019
sur l’indice de développement humain (IDH) a encore classé le Niger dernier des pays
(189ème sur 189).

NIGER ÉLECTION GENERALES 2020-2021

I. Les parties prenantes au processus électoral
et les protagonistes de la scène politique nigérienne
Le contexte de défis électoraux que connait le Niger révèle
différents groupes d’acteurs sociaux et politiques qui
tentent des coalitions dans la perspective de ces élections.
Depuis 1992, le Niger n’a pas connu d’alternance
démocratique dans les règles de l’art, car, depuis
l’avènement de la démocratie en 1992, le pays a connu 03
coups d’État (1996, 1999 et 2010) suite à des crises
économiques et institutionnelles. En effet, c’est dans le
souci de réussir ce nouveau pari, que le président de la
république a toujours réitéré aux Nigériens, son
engagement et sa ferme volonté à organiser des élections
libres, transparentes et apaisées. Il espère réussir ce défi et,
s’il le faut, passer démocratiquement le pouvoir au parti qui
en sera le vainqueur.
Quant à eux, les partis politiques de l’opposition se
mobilisent à travers des coalitions qui se font au gré des
intérêts, tous dans l’espoir de renverser la donne lors des
scrutins à venir. En l’espace de 3 semaines, 3 différentes
plateformes composées de partis de l’opposition, de
syndicats et aussi d’organisations de la société civile⁴ ont
été créés. On dénombre également différents fronts dont le
”Front pour la Démocratie et la République (FDR)”, le ”Front
de l’Opposition Indépendante (FOI)”, le ”Front Patriotique
(FP)” et le ”Front pour la Restauration de la Démocratie et la
Défense de la République (FRDDR)”. Ces coalitions de
l’opposition boycottent toutes les instances politiques
existantes. Elles permettront sans doute de porter plus haut
les revendications ; accentuer et maintenir la pression sur le
pouvoir dans le but d’aboutir à la satisfaction des dites
revendications

En outre des partis de la mouvance présidentielle et ceux
de l’opposition, il existe le groupe des partis non-affiliés,
un groupe de partis politiques qui a exprimé ses griefs
contre le processus électoral en se démarquant des
positions des groupes existant.
La société civile⁵ nigérienne n’est pas en reste. Elle
s’identifie par une frange qui est pro-pouvoir, une autre
frange non moins importante qui soutient l’opposition et
une dernière frange qui tente de jouer dans la neutralité.
Des syndicats se sont impliqués dans le jeu en rejoignant
l’une ou l’autre coalition ”extra partis politiques”.
D’autres institutions incontournables sont dans le
collimateur des acteurs de l’opposition qui demande leur
recomposition, car mettant en doute leur impartialité dans
le processus électoral. Il s’agit de la CENI et de la Cour
Constitutionnelle. C’est aussi le cas de du Conseil National
de Dialogue Politique (CNDP) au sein duquel les partis
politiques ont toujours pu trouver des consensus sur les
points de divergences et qui est désormais boycotté par
l’opposition qui ne participe plus à ces sessions.
Néanmoins, l’ensemble des Organes de Gestion des
Elections (OGE) sont à pied d’oeuvre et de grandes étapes
dans ce processus, bien que désapprouvées par
l’opposition, ont été franchies. On pourrait citer
l’enrôlement biométrique des électeurs, l’audit du fichier
électoral, la convocation des collèges électoraux etc.

NIGER ÉLECTION GENERALES 2020-2021

Dans le cadre de ces élections locales puis des législatives
et présidentielle couplées au Niger, pour une première, de
nombreux jeunes se lancent dans la course pour les sièges à
l’assemblée nationale et dans les municipalités⁶. Le fichier
électoral a également révélé qu’un nombre appréciable de
femmes s’intéresse aux scrutins de 2020-2021 et le taux de
femmes inscrites sur les listes électorales est de 55%.
Ces différents acteurs s’activent et se mobilisent autour des
points de divergences et autres initiatives de dialogue.

II. Des points de divergences autour du processus
électoral actuel et les initiatives pour y répondre
a. Absence de consensus politique sur
la révision du Code électoral⁷ qui «exclurait »
des candidats
Depuis le début du processus, la question de la
révision du code électoral divise la classe politique
nigérienne et impacte négativement le dialogue politique
et donc le processus électoral en cours. Par rapport au code
électoral, il faut souligner que le principal point de divergence entre les partis politiques reste et demeure
l’article 8 du code électoral notamment à son alinéa 2 qui
dispose : “Ne peuvent être inscrits sur la liste électorale : les
individus condamnés définitivement pour délit à une peine
d’emprisonnement ferme égale ou supérieure à un an et
non-réhabilités”.
Ainsi, pour la majorité au pouvoir, on estime qu’on ne peut
pas réviser cet article car, depuis le code électoral de 1992,
l’article 8 a toujours établit qu’un (1) an d’emprisonnement
empêche d’être candidat ou d’être électeur. Mais, pour
l’opposition, plus précisément le Mouvement
Démocratique Nigérien (MODEN FA/Lumana), il faut la
suppression pure et simple de cet article car son alinéa 2
constitue un véritable obstacle à la candidature de son
président Hama Amadou, investi déjà en août 2019 comme
candidat du parti aux élections législatives et présidentielle
de décembre 2020. Pour rappel, Hama Amadou a été
condamné par contumace à un (1) an de prison pour «
trafic d’enfants⁸ » en mars 2017 alors qu’il était toujours en
exil en France. Tous ses recours contre sa condamnation
dont celui déposé devant la Cour de justice de la CEDEAO,
le 31 octobre 2019, avaient été rejetés. Le 30 mars 2020, le
président de la République a ordonné une remise de peine
pour plus de 1 500 prisonniers nigériens afin de
désengorger les prisons nationales dans le cadre de la lutte
contre la pandémie de la Covid-19 et Hama Amadou fait
partie des prisonniers qui ont bénéficié de cette remise de
peine. Par ailleurs, il est important de rappeler que le
problème de l’article 8 du code électoral reste complexe
car les acteurs politiques savent que, même dans le code
pénal, les articles 38 et 39 définissent également les
conditions dans lesquelles un citoyen peut perdre ses
droits civils et politiques. Alors, même si on arrive à trouver
un consensus politique et modifier les dispositions de
l’alinéa 2 de l’article 8 du code électoral sans modifier les
dispositions du code pénal, le problème resterait entier
d’autant plus que c’est le code pénal qui définit les
infractions et leurs sanctions.

b. La non-participation de l’opposition à la
CENI et aux autres instances politiques
nationales
Depuis son installation officielle le 20 Octobre 2017, la CENI
chargée d’organiser les élections a toujours été contestée
par l’opposition qui a, à maintes reprises, déclaré qu’elle (la
CENI) ne représente pas tous les acteurs engagés dans la
compétition électorale et déplore la ”politisation” de ceux
qui sont chargés d’élaborer le fichier électoral. Pour
l’opposition politique, « la CENI serait un organe partisan au
service exclusif » du parti au pouvoir. Elle dit avoir des
doutes sur la qualité du travail qu’elle fait et qu’elle fera.
C’est pourquoi, l’opposition, elle, n’a toujours pas désigné
ses 05 représentants au sein de la CENI jusqu’à ce jour, à
trois (03) mois seulement des élections. Malgré sa position
face à la CENI, l’opposition¹⁰ fait toujours savoir qu’elle tient
à une bonne organisation des futures élections.

c. De l’enrôlement des Nigériens de la diaspora
Saisie le 04 Juin 2020 par requête du premier ministre sur la
question de « l’enrôlement des Nigériens de la diaspora et
la validité du fichier électoral national biométrique », la
Cour Constitutionnelle a tranché à travers l’arrêt
n°004/CC/MC en date du 15 juin 2020. Dans cet arrêt, la
Cour, après avoir jugé recevable la requête du chef du
gouvernement, a estimé que « la pandémie de la Covid-19
est un cas de force majeure qui justifie la suspension de
l’enrôlement des Nigériens de la diaspora ». Ainsi, selon la
Cour constitutionnelle, « le fichier électoral national
biométrique même en l’absence de la liste des ambassades
et des consulats demeure valide ». En effet, ledit arrêt a été
publié, le lundi 22 juin 2020 par la Cour Constitutionnelle.
Tout de même, le président de la CENI a annoncé à
l’occasion de la réunion extraordinaire du CNDP du 3 Juillet
2020, une reprise de l’enrôlement biométrique pour les
Nigériens de la diaspora dès que les conditions le
permettront. Ainsi, qu’elle organisera par la suite les
législatives partielles pour l’élection des 5 députés de la
diaspora à l’Assemblée Nationale.
d. De la contestation de la liste électorale
L’enrôlement biométrique qui s’est déroulé du 15 octobre
2019 au 7 juin 2020 a connu des difficultés, notamment
dans les zones où l’insécurité est accrue et aussi au niveau
de la diaspora à cause des restrictions de mouvements,
consécutives à la pandémie de la COVID-19. Audité par
l’Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF), on
constate que 76 % des personnes en âge de voter ont été
enrôlées, soit au total, 7 446 556 électeurs dont 4 093 291
Femmes, ce qui constitue 55% du fichier électoral. Le 2
septembre 2020, le Fichier Électoral National Biométrique
(FEB) a été officiellement remis au Ministre en charge des
élections. Le 12 septembre 2020, la Coalition pour une
Alternance Démocratique (CAP 20-21) rejetait en bloc les
résultats de l’audit du fichier effectué par l’OIF qui aurait,
selon elle, minimiser les chiffres dans les cas d’irrégularités.

Par son biais, l’opposition demande la correction des
doublons, la radiation de 5000 électeurs et la
restructuration de 400 bureaux ayant moins de 50
électeurs, tel que recommandé par l’OIF dans son rapport
après l’audit du fichier électoral.
En réaction à ces points de divergences, des tentatives de
reprise du dialogue politique sont notées et des signes
positifs s’observent pour la tenue du scrutin. Il s’agit :
a. Des tentatives pour relancer le
fonctionnement optimum du CNDP
Le Lundi 1er octobre 2018, certains partis de l’opposition
ont repris leurs places au sein du CNDP. Avec cette reprise,
les assises ont débouché sur la mise en place d’un comité
tripartite, (majorité, opposition et non-affiliés) chargé de
réfléchir autour des points de désaccords entre les parties
prenantes, dont entre autres, la révision du Code électoral,
la composition de la CENI, la configuration des bureaux de
vote, les critères d’éligibilité, le fonctionnement du CNDP
etc. afin de réussir ensemble un processus électoral
consensuel et inclusif. Mais, quelques jours après sa mise
en place, ce comité n’a pas réussi à trouver un consensus
autour de certaines dispositions du code électoral (article
8, 12, 80 et 81¹¹) et l’opposition a tout simplement décidé,
de se retirer suite à la non-validation d’une série d’articles
fondamentaux. Depuis lors, l’opposition politique
boycotte les rencontres du CNDP. Pour rappel, le CNDP a
été officiellement créé en 2004 pour aplanir, par
consensus, les divergences entre les acteurs politiques et
est considéré depuis lors comme le seul espace légitime du
débat politique et de l’action collective. Aujourd’hui, les
faits attestent que, « le CNDP montre ses limites » car,
depuis 2018, la classe politique nigérienne peine à trouver
des solutions consensuelles pour l’intérêt général du pays.

Les articles 8, 12, 80 et 81 du Code Électoral stipulent
que :
Art. 8: Ne peuvent être inscrits sur la liste électorale :
-les individus condamnés définitivement pour crime et
non réhabilités ;
-les individus condamnés définitivement pour délit à
une peine d’emprisonnement ferme égale ou supérieure
à un (1) an et non réhabilités ;
-ceux qui sont déclarés en faillite et ayant fait l’objet
d’une condamnation pour banqueroute frauduleuse et
non réhabilités ;
-les internés et les interdits.
N’empêchent pas l’inscription sur une liste électorale les
condamnations avec sursis telles que prévues à l’article
38 du Code pénal et les condamnations pour délit
d’imprudence hors le cas de délit de fuite concomitant.

Art.12 (Loi n° 2019-38 du 18 juillet 2019): La CENI
comprend dix-neuf (19) membres permanents nommés
par décret du Président de la République, qui sont :
6
– un (e) (1) Président (e) ;
– un (e) (1) Vice-président (e) ;
– cinq (5) membres issus des partis politiques de la
majorité ;
– cinq (5) membres issus des partis politiques de
l’opposition ;
– deux (2) membres issus des partis politiques non affiliés ;
– deux (2) représentant (e) (s) de la société civile désignés
par leurs pairs comme suit :
* un (1) représentant des collectifs des associations de
défense des droits de l’homme et de promotion de la
démocratie légalement reconnues ;
* une (1) représentante des collectifs des associations
féminines légalement reconnues ;
– trois (3) cadres du niveau supérieur ayant des
compétences avérées en matière de statistiques, de
finances publiques et d’administration, désignés par
l’administration publique, sans voix délibérative.
Toutefois, en période électorale, les candidat (e) (s) des
partis politiques ou les candidat(e)s indépendant(e)s à
l’élection présidentielle désignent leurs représentants
avec voix délibérative à partir de la validation des
candidatures jusqu’à la proclamation des résultats
définitifs par la Cour constitutionnelle.
Les membres de la CENI sont choisis parmi les
personnalités de nationalité nigérienne, de niveau
supérieur, connues pour leur intégrité morale, leur
honnêteté intellectuelle, leur compétence et leur probité.
La qualité de membre de la CENI est incompatible avec
l’exercice de toute fonction publique ou activités
professionnelles à l’exception des membres nonpermanents
de la CENI.
Les membres de la CENI n’ont pas de mandat impératif.
La CENI peut faire appel à toute personne dont les
compétences sont nécessaires à sa mission.
Art. 80 (Loi n° 2019-38 du 18 juillet 2019): Le bureau de
vote est composé de :
· – un (e) (1) président (e) ;
· – un (e) (1) secrétaire ;
· – trois (3) assesseurs.

La composition des bureaux de vote doit refléter la
représentation des partis politiques, groupements de
partis politiques ou candidats indépendants en
compétition dans la circonscription électorale. Au cas où
un parti politique, groupement de partis politiques ou
candidat indépendant ne peut pourvoir au nombre de
postes à lui attribué, la CENI décide en dernier ressort.
La composition du bureau de vote doit prendre en
compte, autant que possible, la dimension genre. Tous les
membres du bureau de vote doivent être présents
pendant tout le déroulement des opérations électorales
sauf cas d’empêchement dûment justifié.
Le président et le secrétaire doivent être titulaires au
moins du Brevet d’études du premier cycle (BEPC) et être
âgés de dix-huit (18) ans au moins, au jour du scrutin.
Les partis politiques, les groupements de partis politiques
et les candidats indépendants doivent communiquer un
(1) mois avant le jour du scrutin : les noms et prénoms, le
diplôme et le numéro de la carte biométrique des
personnes qu’ils proposent pour occuper les postes de
président et de secrétaire des bureaux de vote.
Le secrétaire supplée le président en cas d’absence ou
d’empêchement. Dans ce cas un assesseur sachant lire et
écrire assure les fonctions de secrétaire.
Le président pourvoit au remplacement des assesseurs
absents ou empêchés dans les conditions prévues à
l’alinéa 4 du présent article.
Peuvent assister aux opérations de vote en qualité de
délégués, les représentants dûment mandatés des
candidats aux élections présidentielles, législatives ou
locales, des candidats indépendants et des partis
politiques légalement constitués ou des groupements de
partis politiques.
Peuvent également assister aux opérations de vote, les
observateurs nationaux et internationaux invités ou
agréés par la CENI.
Art. 81 (Loi n° 2019-38 du 18 juillet 2019): Les membres du
bureau de vote mentionnés à l’article précédent sont
nommés par décision du Président de la Commission
électorale concernée, après délibération de la plénière de
ladite Commission. La liste des membres des bureaux de
vote est transmise à la CENI.

b. L’engouement inattendu qu’a
connu les opérations d’enrôlement
biométrique.
Les différents leaders politiques nigériens se sont faits
enrôlés sur le fichier électoral biométrique et ont, par
ricochet, appelé leurs militants à faire de même. D’ailleurs,
de nombreuses candidatures ont été annoncées,
provenant aussi bien de la majorité présidentielle que de
l’opposition. Six (6) candidats ont déjà été choisis par leurs
partis politiques pour prendre part à l’élection
présidentielle. Il s’agit de l’ancien président de la
République (1993 à 1996), Mahamane Ousmane ; des
anciens présidents de l’Assemblée nationale Hama
Amadou et Seïni Oumarou ; de l’ancien ministre de
l’Intérieur et candidat du parti au pouvoir Bazoum
Mohamed ; de l’ancien ministre des Affaires étrangères
Ibrahim Yacouba et le Général Djibo Salou¹², ex-chef de la
junte militaire qui a assuré la transition de février 2010 à
avril 2011, investi candidat du parti Paix-Justice-Progrès
(PJP Doubara).
Actuellement toute la problématique tourne autour de la
candidature du chef de file de l’opposition Hama Amadou,
désigné candidat par son parti le MODEN-FA/Lumana, eu
égard aux dispositions de l’article 8 du code électoral et
pénal. Du côté de la majorité présidentielle, la candidature
de Mohamed Bazoum, président du Parti Nigérien pour la
Démocratie et le Socialisme (PNDS Tarayya), parti au
pouvoir bénéficie déjà d’un soutien de plusieurs partis
politiques membres de la mouvance, comme celui du parti
Congrès Pour la République (CPR Ingantchi) de Kassoum
Moctar, actuel ministre de la jeunesse et du sport. Quant à
la candidature de Seyni Oumarou, président du
Mouvement National pour la Société de Développement
(MNSD), actuel Haut Représentant du Président de la
République, des divisions internes à son parti risquent
d’être un talon d’Achille à la mobilisation de ses électeurs.

Par ailleurs, des organisations de la société civile (OSC) non
alignées mènent des sensibilisations citoyennes pour
renforcer la résilience des populations à la violence
électorale. Des déclarations et appels à des élections
apaisées sont diffusés. Certaines OSC initient des
caravanes pour la promotion de la paix pendant les
élections.
Toutefois, malgré ces diverses initiatives, des menaces
continuent de peser sur le processus.
III. Autres menaces au processus électoral
a. Le défi pour la tenue des élections locales
avant la présidentielle,
A un moment donné, la question de la tenue des élections
locales était une préoccupation majeure des parties
prenantes. Après plusieurs propositions de dates par la
CENI, mais non acceptées par une partie de la classe
politique comme l’opposition, la CENI a finalement
réaménagé son calendrier et a trouvé une date
consensuelle pour la tenue des élections locales. En effet,
au cours de la réunion du CNDP du 23 juillet 2020, le
président de la CENI a annoncé la date du 13 décembre 2020 en précisant qu’il s’agit d’une date qui répond aux
préoccupations des acteurs mais qui tient aussi compte de
ses capacités logistiques, financières et organisationnelles.
La CENI se retrouve ainsi à organiser, en l’espace de 15
jours,¹⁴ des élections locales, législatives et présidentielle. Il
n’est donc pas à exclure que de probables contentieux liés
aux locales, qui sont prévues pour le 13 décembre, puissent
avoir des répercussions sur le contexte politique et les
scrutins qui suivent.
b. Les menaces sécuritaires dans la région
de Tillabéry, Diffa et Tahoua
Le terrorisme sévit au Niger principalement en zones du Lac
(région de Diffa) frontalières avec le Nigéria et au Sahel
(région de Tillabéry¹⁵) dans sa partie frontalière avec le Mali
et le Burkina Faso. Deux parties du pays qui vivent, depuis
des années, les conséquences d’actes terroristes ou
extrémistes violents avec des attaques meurtrières contre
les Forces de Défense et de Sécurité (FDS), l’enlèvement et
l’assassinat des chefs de villages et des femmes etc.
Aujourd’hui, les deux principales régions les plus touchées
par l’extrémisme violent et où cette situation pourra sans
doute impacter négativement le bon déroulement du
processus électoral sont Diffa et Tillabéry. A ces deux
principales régions, s’ajoute également la région de Tahoua
notamment dans les départements de Tillia et Tassara
frontaliers avec le nord-Mali. L’exemple des agents
enrôleurs déployés sur le terrain par la CENI et qui ont été
pris pour cible par les terroristes à Tilla et Abala¹⁶ est encore
récent. Pour toutes ces raisons sécuritaires, la CENI avait
annoncé, le mardi 21 Janvier 2020, avoir suspendu les
opérations d’enrôlement d’électeurs dans plusieurs
communes (Bala, Tondikiwindi, Makalondi, Torodi,
Gouroual, Diagourou, Inates et Banibangou) à Tillabéry et
dans le département de Tillia à Tahoua. De même, un tel
contexte d’insécurité mettra la CENI dans l’incapacité de
trouver des agents à déployer dans ces zones tout au long
du processus électoral en cours. Une situation susceptible
aussi d’influencer les libertés de campagne électorale des
partis politiques. Outre les multiples attaques, il faut aussi
noter que cette situation d’insécurité a entrainé le
déplacement de milliers de personnes qui ont fui leurs localités vers des zones considérées plus en sécurité. Un autre facteur à prendre aussi en compte dans ce processus électoral.
c. L’incendie systématique des écoles par les
groupes armés

Dans le contexte du Niger, les salles de classes et les
concessions d’écoles servent de lieux pour certaines
opérations électorales et pour l’installation des équipes
d’enrôlements et des bureaux de votes par exemple. Or, la
dégradation de la situation sécuritaire se focalise dans la
recrudescence d’incendies des infrastructures scolaires,
des menaces à l’endroit du personnel enseignant et le
développement de discours virulents à l’encontre d’un
système éducatif jugé occidental, par les terroristes avec
pour conséquences directes, l’abandon scolaire et la
déscolarisation des enfants. En effet, selon des sources
locales, les terroristes organisent des campagnes de
sensibilisation auprès des populations sur « les préceptes
de l’Islam », particulièrement sur les « méfaits » de
l’enseignement et de la culture occidentale, tout en
demandant aux populations de ne plus inscrire leurs
enfants dans les écoles d’enseignement modernes, dans certaines localités de la région de Tillabéry. En guise
d’avertissement, ces groupes armés ont menacé le
personnel enseignant et brulé plusieurs salles de classe.
Ainsi, les terroristes ont mis feu à une vingtaine d’écoles
courant l’année 2018-2019¹⁷.
Aujourd’hui, cette situation de psychose a, non
seulement des conséquences directes sur l’accès des
enfants au droit fondamental à l’éducation, favorise la
déscolarisation¹⁸ des enfants avec des risques de
l’augmentation du nombre d’écoles fermées dans les zones
affectées et le recrutement des enfants au sein des groupes
armés.
d. Autres facteurs crisogènes
La mobilisation et ou l’implication de certains syndicats et
d’une partie de la société civile dans la politique à différents
niveaux, inquiète sans doute une partie de la classe
politique, ce qui pourrait accroître les risques de
contestation électorale. Aussi, la question des déplacés
internes nécessite une communication suffisante de la part
des autorités nigériennes, concernant leur participation
aux élections, surtout pour les locales. Pour cela, les
enrôlements au niveau des nouveaux emplacements, les
enrôlements des habitants des zones frappées par
l’insécurité et des ressortissants de la diaspora a été
recommandé. Toutefois, des risques de troubles ou des
contestations pourraient subvenir autour du vote des
déplacés ou les dispositifs qui seront mis en place par la
CENI à cet effet.
Dans ce contexte déjà précaire, la situation sécuritaire et
sociopolitique des voisins immédiats au Niger, notamment
le Mali et le Burkina Faso peuvent avoir une influence sur
celui-ci. Enfin, la menace sanitaire due à la pandémie de la
COVID-19 demeure, quoi que cela n’ait empêché
l’effervescence politique que vit la sous-région en cette
année électorale.

IV. Scénarios Possibles :
Dans l’espoir que les différents appels pour des
élections apaisées soient entendus par les protagonistes
de la scène politique nigérienne, il demeure que plusieurs
scénarios sont envisageables, afin d’interpeller les parties
prenantes à accélérer les actions pour un retour à la table
du dialogue dans l’intérêt de la paix et de la stabilité du
pays.
a. Meilleur scénario : (Peu probable):
Du dialogue positif renoué pour des élections inclusives et
pacifiques
Le gouvernement crée une condition favorable au
dialogue politique. L’opposition politique et les nonaffiliés
changent de stratégie et prennent part aux réunions
du CNDP et désignent leurs représentants à la CENI. Le
Dialogue a eu lieu sur les questions de divergences en
tenant compte des enjeux mais aussi des réalités afin que
les scrutins se passent dans des conditions apaisées. Les
dialogues vont aboutir à des terrains d’entente qui ont
facilité la réussite de cette étape cruciale, pour la première
véritable alternance démocratique au Niger.
b. Scénario réaliste : (Très Peu probable):
Du vide constitutionnel qui installe la crise électorale
Malgré les nombreuses initiatives, la situation de rupture
de dialogue a perduré avec une cristallisation des positions
autour des points de divergences. La situation a
occasionné de graves conséquences et retards sur le
calendrier électoral. Malgré tout, les élections locales se
tiennent à bonne date, mais avec des dysfonctionnements
importants. Les conditions de sa conduite ont occasionné
des contestations et une atmosphère socio-politique qui
ont influencé la confiance des acteurs et déstabilisé le
calendrier électoral des législatives et présidentielle du 27
décembre 2020. La crise s’installe dans une situation de fin
de mandat constitutionnel de l’actuel président. Une
transition démocratique s’enclenche pour conduire les
élections.

c. Pire Scénario : (Probable):
Un scrutin sans le principal opposant et risque de violence,
L’opposition reste dans sa posture actuelle, sans
avoir le moyen de faire fléchir le pouvoir, concernant
particulièrement une révision de l’article 8, du code
électoral. Elle boycotte donc les élections et organise des
manifestations à travers le pays, qui vont conduire à des
arrestations de ses partisans et de certains de ses leaders au
regard des dégâts enregistrés. Des groupes armés
trouvent, en ces manifestations, des occasions pour
progresser, intensifier leurs actes de violence et
d’extrémisme violent. Les résultats des élections sont
également rejetés par l’opposition. Une crise
postélectorale s’installe.
V. Recommandations:
Au gouvernement:
Ÿ Remobiliser les acteurs au sein du cadre de dialogue
politique afin de vider les contentieux et de créer les
conditions d’un consensus général autour du processus
électoral;
Ÿ Veiller à la neutralité de l’administration vis-à-vis du
processus électoral pour mettre en confiance
l’opposition politique, afin qu’elle participe pleinement
au processus en cours;
Ÿ Renforcer sa présence à travers le déploiement des FDS
dans les zones affectées par le terrorisme;
Ÿ Renforcer la collaboration civilo-militaire suivant une
approche centrée sur la police de proximité, en créant
un climat de confiance entre les FDS et les populations à
travers des activités d’intérêts communautaires ;
A la CENI
Ÿ Respecter la tenue à bonne date des élections afin que
les scrutins se passent dans de bonnes conditions;
Ÿ Demeurer dans le professionnalisme afin d’organiser
des élections crédibles à même de bénéficier d’une
adhésion et d’une reconnaissance de l’ensemble des
parties prenantes ;

Aux acteurs politiques
Ÿ Réprendre le dialogue politique afin que des
consensus soient trouvés pour réussir des élections
apaisées et crédibles;
Ÿ Sensibiliser et former les jeunes des partis politiques
sur la non-violence en faveur d’élections apaisées;
Ÿ Appeler les militants politiques à se mobiliser pour des
élections apaisées, justes et acceptées par tous ;
A la société civile :
Ÿ Sensibiliser et former les jeunes des partis politiques
sur la non-violence;
Ÿ Accélérer la mise en place d’une plateforme des
Organisations de la Société Civile (OSC) pour le suivi
citoyen du processus électoral dans le respect des
règles démocratiques;
Ÿ Intensifier la sensibilisation des populations en faveur
d’un processus électoral apaisé ;
CONCLUSION:
Au regard des positions affichées par les partis politiques
autour de ce processus électoral, notamment
l’organisation des élections locales avant les législatives et
la présidentielle, et le nouveau chronogramme de la CENI,
il se dégage la nécessité de créer des conditions favorables
et trouver un consensus politique en tenant compte de
tous les enjeux dans le respect des textes en vigueur.
L’opportunité de hisser le Niger au rang des bons élèves
en bonnes pratiques démocratiques est à saisir avec ces
scrutins de 2020-2021. Pour cela, les principaux acteurs
politiques du pays devraient trouver à temps un consensus
politique sur les points de divergences afin d’éviter des
boycotts des prochaines élections générales avec son lot
prévisible de conséquences et d’instabilités politiques
pour le pays.
Cependant, les questions électorales, sujettes de
préoccupation actuelle, ne sont pas l’apanage exclusif des
candidats et des partis politiques. La transparence et la
régularité des élections intéressent également les
citoyens, qui ne sont pas tous partisans des partis
politiques, mais qui y attachent un fort prix au nom de
l’impératif de légitimité des élus et des institutions,
fondement de tout système démocratique.

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